According to Goldman Sachs economists, there’s a 15% chance of a recession within the next year and a 35% chance within the next 24 months. A recent report read in part, “Our analysis of historical G10 episodes suggests that although strong economic momentum limits the risk in the near-term, the policy tightening we expect raises the odds of recession. As a result, we now see the odds of a recession as roughly 15% in the next 12 months and 35% within the next 24 months.” In other news, experts say the global economy is losing steam. The World Bank has slashed its forecast for global growth in 2022 to 3.2% from 4.1%.

 

Yahoo Finance/Brian Sozzi
There is a 35% chance of a recession in 2 years: Goldman Sachs

With recession calls on Wall Street picking up as the Federal Reserve embarks on what could be up to eight interest rate hikes this year, Goldman Sachs no longer wants to be left out of the growing crowd.

“Our analysis of historical G10 episodes suggests that although strong economic momentum limits the risk in the near-term, the policy tightening we expect raises the odds of recession. As a result, we now see the odds of a recession as roughly 15% in the next 12 months and 35% within the next 24 months,” said Jan Hatzius, Goldman Sachs chief economist, in a new note to clients.

Eleven out of 14 tightening cycles since World War II have been followed by a recession within two years, warns Hatzius.

Added Hatzius, “Taken at face value, these historical patterns suggest the Fed faces a narrow path to a soft landing as it aims to close the jobs-workers gap and bring inflation back towards its 2% target.”

Read the full story, here.

 

CNN Business/Julia Horowitz
The world may dodge another recession. But risks are growing

As the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund kick off their spring meetings this week, both are sounding a warning: The global economy, they say, is quickly losing steam.

What’s happening: The World Bank has slashed its forecast for global growth in 2022 to 3.2% from 4.1%, anticipating a sharp deceleration from estimated growth of 5.5% in 2021. The IMF’s latest outlook arrives later Tuesday.

World Bank President David Malpass told journalists that “severe overlapping crises” are weighing on the recovery.

“There’s Covid-19, inflation and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine,” he said on Monday.

You can read the full story, here.

 

Motley Fool/Daniel Foelber, Scott Levine, and Lee Samaha
Better Buy Now: Gold, Silver, or Copper?

2022 has so far been the year of commodities. Oil, natural gas, wheat, soy, uranium, lithium, gold, silver, and base metals like copper, aluminum, and nickel have all caught the attention of investors. Commodities react to supply and demand. And demand for many commodities is rising faster than supply.

Commodities are real assets that can perform well during times of inflation. Gold and silver have long been seen as hedges against a recession. And copper’s use cases have only grown in recent years, partially because of electric vehicle applications.

Continue reading, here.

 

 

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