Some economists are warning that a recession could be drawing near. John Lonski, President of Thru the Cycle, told Kitco News, “I am not all that optimistic about what lies ahead for the economy in 2023 – 2024. In the 1970s, we had prolonged stays by steadily increasing price inflation. Those episodes of rising price inflation did not end until the U.S. went into a recession. An economic slump would be in response to higher interest rates and reduced profitability.” In other news, the unemployment rate fell to 4.6% last month.

 

Kitco News
Are we on course for a full-blown recession by 2023?

The Federal Reserve announced it will be winding down its bond-buying program later this month. The process will involve a $15 billion monthly reduction from the current $120 billion a month the Fed is buying currently. “The bull market is going to crack eventually because the consecutive monthly tapering is going to hurt the markets the most,” Alasdair Macleod, Head of Research at Goldmoney, emphasized.

Speaking in a panel along with John Lonski, President of Thru the Cycle, hosted by Michelle Makori, Lead Anchor and Editor-in-Chief of Kitco News, both Macleod and Lonski agreed that inflation is worse than the Fed admits, which will push us into a recession.

Lonski, the former Chief Economist at Moody’s Capital Markets, discussed his long-term economic outlook. “I am not all that optimistic about what lies ahead for the economy in 2023 – 2024. In the 1970s, we had prolonged stays by steadily increasing price inflation. Those episodes of rising price inflation did not end until the U.S. went into a recession,” Lonski explained. “An economic slump would be in response to higher interest rates and reduced profitability.”

You can read the full story, here.

 

Fox Business/Jonathan Garber
US economy adds 531K jobs in October, surging past expectations

U.S. employers’ hiring surged in October as the number of new infections caused by the COVID-19 delta variant slowed and the expiration of extended unemployment benefits moved further in the rearview mirror.

Nonfarm payrolls increased by 531,000 workers last month as the unemployment rate fell 0.2 percentage points to 4.6%, the Labor Department said Friday. Economists surveyed by Refinitiv were expecting the addition of 450,000 jobs and the unemployment rate to slip to 4.7%.

The job gains in September were revised up to 312,000 from the prior reading of 194,000.

You can read the full story, here.

 

CNN Business
Larry Summers: The economy is overheating but it’s good for workers

Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers warns inflation could last for at least another six to nine months, but people will find it easier to get wage increases and jobs.

Watch the full interview, here.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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