New Bloomberg Economics model projections forecast a 100% chance of a U.S. recession within the next 12 months. The expectations of a recession have been growing among economists due to federal interest rate hikes, scorching-hot inflation, and the Ukraine war. However, some officials are holding out hope. “I don’t think there will be a recession,” President Joe Biden said during a CNN interview. “If it is, it’ll be a very slight recession…”

Fox Business/Megan Henney
US recession odds rise to 100% as inflation squeezes the economy

There is almost near certainty that the U.S. economy will enter a recession within the next year, according to a new statistical analysis from Bloomberg Economics.

The probability modeling forecasts a 100% chance of the economy hitting a downturn by October 2023. That is up from 65% for the same period of time in the previous update of the model.

The forecast will likely be unwelcome news for President Biden, who has repeatedly maintained that the U.S. will avoid a recession and that any downturn will be “very slight” as he seeks to assuage voter fears about the state of the economy ahead of the pivotal midterm elections.

“I don’t think there will be a recession. If it is, it’ll be a very slight recession,” the president said last week during an interview on CNN. “That is, we’ll move down slightly.”

You can read the full story, here.

Mises Institute/James Turk
Gold As Natural Money

Every natural element with which the earth has been endowed has a usefulness—a purpose. If we listen to gold, its message is loud and clear—gold is money. To serve as natural money is gold’s highest purpose.

The advance of civilization demonstrates that nature throughout the ages, to our good fortune, has provided everything humanity needs to progress, including money. Few today, however, understand money as it has existed from prehistory and as it was perceived up until the dawn of the twentieth century. Since the commencement of the First World War in 1914, time-honored principles have been abandoned. Humanity has become enthralled with money substitutes like national currencies and, more recently, cryptocurrencies circulating in place of money, and people have subsequently lost sight of natural money itself.

You can keep reading, here.

Daily Reckoning/James Rickards
The Fed’s Great Inflation Conundrum

The stock market was up big today, but it was nothing compared to last Thursday’s huge rally. In fact, last Thursday was one of the wildest days of trading in the history of Wall Street.

But don’t mistake that for the return of good times. It simply serves as a good example of just how volatile markets are these days — and the power of narratives to challenge fundamental analysis.

In other words, there’s a lot less there than meets the eye. Let’s break it all down…

The action started at 8:30 Thursday morning when the government released inflation data that showed consumer prices had surged 8.2% in September on a year-over-year basis.

The clear implication of this was that the Fed would continue tightening including a 0.75% rate hike on Nov. 2 because the fight against inflation was nowhere near over.

Continue reading, here.

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