by Sean Kelly
Ron Paul is not in the habit of making market predictions. But when he does, we have learned to pay close attention.
This time last year Dr. Paul announced that we were in a new gold bull market. He was certainly right about that.
Now the long-time congressman and former presidential candidate says he expects gold to hit $3,000 an ounce this year. That is certainly possible.
Ron Paul is one of the nation’s foremost gold authorities. He was a member of President Ronald Reagan’s Gold Commission in the 1980s, and is the co-author of The Case for Gold about the commission’s findings, as well as the author of Gold, Peace, and Prosperity, and the New York Times bestseller End the Fed.
In House Financial Services Committee hearings, Congressman Paul made more than one Federal Reserve chairman squirm. When Ben Bernanke testified before the committee, Dr. Paul asked him if gold is money.
Bernanke was caught momentarily speechless. “No,” he finally answered.
“Oh?” said Dr. Paul, “Even though it has been money for thousands of years? Then, if it’s not money, why do central banks hold it?”
“Well,” said the Chairman, “it’s tradition.”
Wrong. Christmas trees are a tradition. So is having turkey at Thanksgiving. Those are traditions.
Central banks have gold because in the real world it is still money. When governments loan money to one another in a crisis, they often insist those loans be collateralized with gold. When the allies defeated Germany in World War I, they didn’t want paper money. They insisted German war reparations be paid in gold. The International Monetary Fund holds 2,814 tons of gold. It does so because the countries of the world have confidence in gold that they do not have in the vast array of paper currencies.
When Ron Paul makes a prediction like this one about gold going to $3,000 this year, it is based on sound economic principles. It is worth going back to see his 2003 description in the House Banking Committee about the way the housing market would tumble, and the Great Recession would unfold. Joe Scarborough of MSNBC read Paul’s remarks on the air after the damage had been done and asked him how he had seen the catastrophe coming and nobody else did. His description was so precise, it was like he was calling a play-by-play… in advance!
That’s just one of many reasons why we take Dr. Paul’s infrequent predictions so seriously. It is because he is not just guessing about what could happen. His outlook is grounded in time-proven economic principles.
By the way, Ron Paul is not the only one calling for much higher gold prices. In April the nation’s second largest bank, Bank of America, raised its target for gold over the next eighteen months from $2,000 to $3,000.
The nation’s second largest bank said, “Just as central banks are socializing risk in financial markets, governments are increasing their spending like never before during peacetime. Fiscal spending plans across developed economies are nothing short of breathtaking whether we look at them in dollar terms or as a percentage of each nation’s GDP.”
“As central banks and governments double their balance sheets and fiscal deficits respectively, we have also decided to up our 18 month gold target from $2,000 to $3,000 an ounce.”
Ron Paul would agree about the spending and money printing. In fact, he says that when the big crisis hits, it is conceivable that his prediction of $3,000 gold will prove to be far too modest.
We are in a period of a disintegrating monetary system, according to Dr. Paul.
“Warning signs are all around us!”