A recession could easily cause gold to reach $2,000 an ounce this year, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. As the Fed doesn’t seem to be lowering rates any time soon, this scenario is becoming more likely. “One of the best performers on a 12-month basis, the precious metal may be sniffing out an eventual Fed pivot due to recession,” senior macro strategist Mike McGlone said. Top economist David Rosenberg also predicts a “hard landing” into recession this year and dismisses Wall Street’s notion of a “no landing” scenario. In other news, expectations for the Fed to raise interest rates at its March meeting by a half-percentage point have increased to 27% on Thursday from 1.3% a month prior, which is a scary reality for stocks.

Kitco News/Anna Golubova
Gold’s ticket to $2,000 is U.S. recession and it’s looking more likely, says Bloomberg Intelligence

Gold’s best chance to get to $2,000 an ounce this year is for the U.S. economy to fall into a recession — a scenario that looks more likely due to the Federal Reserve’s stance, according to Bloomberg Intelligence’s March outlook.

Surprisingly strong economic indicators at the start of the year were not convincing enough for some analysts to immediately rule out a recession.

And markets got spooked by solid employment, stubborn inflation, and robust retail sales and PMI data from January. The fear is higher-for-longer interest rates and the Fed reverting back to 50-basis-point hikes.

Continue reading, here.

Business Insider/Theron Mohamed
Recession will grip the US economy within months – and Wall Street is lying about a ‘no landing’ scenario, top economist David Rosenberg says

The US economy is barreling toward recession, and claims that it can escape a downturn are deeply misleading, David Rosenberg warned in a flurry of tweets on Wednesday and Thursday.

“The ‘no landing’ narrative is the biggest hoax Wall Street economists have peddled since ‘global decoupling’ in 2008,” the Rosenberg Research chief said. “Follow the leading indicators, not the Pied Pipers.”

You can read the full article, here.

Barron’s/Jack Denton
Inflation Comes in Higher in Troubling Sign for Fed

The Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation reversed course in January, a sign that the bank may have to be more aggressive than expected on monetary policy and a worrying indicator for investors already nervous about stubbornly rising prices.

The core personal-consumption expenditures price index, also known as the core PCE deflator, rose 4.7% year over year in January, up from 4.4% in December and higher than the 4.3% growth economists surveyed by FactSet had expected. The increase in core PCE for December, initially reported as 4.4%, was revised to 4.6%, showing price growth at the end of last year was hotter than previously thought.

You can read the full article, here.

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