A recession is coming, and it could start as soon as this month, according to the developer of the yield-curve indicator. “We are already slowing. The question is how deep the recession will be,” said Campbell Harvey, who discovered that a recession has always followed the past eight inversions. Harvey added that the downturn may last two to three quarters, calling the potential recession a “self-inflicted wound” by the Federal Reserve. Both Harvey and Apollo Global Management’s Torsten Sløk warn that the banking turmoil is far from over, with Sløk blaming the crisis for “a higher risk of a deeper or longer recession” than markets anticipate. As the fight against inflation continues, it’s been found that 43% of U.S. retirees are considering entering back into the workforce. “Retirement is now in jeopardy,” said Senator Mike Braun, adding that the debt ceiling debate is painting a “sad picture” for future generations.
Markets Insider/Filip De Mott
Recession is coming and could start this month as ‘we are already slowing,’ says developer of the yield-curve indicator
A recession is coming and it could even start this month, according to the developer of the yield-curve indicator.
In January, Duke University professor Campbell Harvey expressed some uncertainty on whether the inverted curve was sending a reliable signal about a contraction.
But since then, that doubt has evaporated.
“We are already slowing,” he told The Wall Street Journal. “The question is how deep the recession will be.”
Continue reading, here.
Barron’s/Reshma Kapadia
This Economist Thinks a Recession Is Coming. It Could Be a Long One.
Days after Silicon Valley Bank failed, Apollo Global Management Chief Economist Torsten Sløk turned bearish on the economic outlook, flipping from a “no-landing” scenario to expectations of a longer and deeper slowdown than markets anticipate.
Sløk, who worked at the International Monetary Fund earlier in his career, is a veritable walking encyclopedia of economic statistics. On Wall Street, he is known for missives to clients about his near- and long-term economic views, derived from an analysis of government and industry data and academic research—footnotes included.
Barron’s spoke with Sløk on May 10 about the stock market impact of a weakening economy, why a housing recovery might be premature, and the potential risks to the global economy of looming changes in Japan.
You can read the full article, here.
Fox Business/Kristen Altus
GOP senator warns Americans: ‘Retirement is now in jeopardy’
With a debt ceiling stalemate painting a “sad picture” for the future of the U.S. economy, one Republican senator raised additional concerns about excessive spending and an aging workforce hitting retirement benefits.
“Retirement is now in jeopardy,” Sen. Mike Braun, R-Ind., said Wednesday on “Mornings with Maria.” “Not only that, look at ESG, where they’re trying to direct you into something other than the best return. It’s bringing people back into the workforce because they’re uncertain about what the future looks like.”
A recent report from Braun’s office found that 43% of U.S. retirees are considering entering back into the workforce due to inflation pressures. It also showed that the share of American workers aged 55 or older nearly doubled over the last two decades.
You can read the full article, here.
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