Fed Chairman Jerome Powell says that a half-percentage point interest rate hike is officially on the table. “50 basis points will be on the table for the May meeting,” Powell said on Thursday. Talks of a recession are ongoing. In a recent interview, Treasury Secretary Larry Summers put the odds of a recession at “quite possibly at two-thirds or more.” In other news, Brian Rose, the Founder and Host of the London Real podcast, said in an interview with Kitco News that World War III wasn’t going to be on the ground. He said, “It’s going to be a currency war between the dollar and the yuan.”

 

CNN Business/Anneken Tappe
Fed Chairman Powell: A half-percentage point interest rate hike is ‘on the table’ for May

A half-percentage point interest rate hike is officially on the table, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Thursday, as the central bank prepares to get inflation under control.

“50 basis points will be on the table for the May meeting,” Powell said during a panel at the International Monetary Fund Debate on the Global Economy.

In March, the central bank raised interest rates by a quarter-percentage point to a range of 0.25% to 0.5% in its first hike since 2018. Investors unanimously expect a bigger rate increase at the bank’s early May meeting, according to the CME’s FedWatch Tool.

“It is appropriate in my view to be moving a little more quickly,” Powell said Thursday, adding that the Fed’s last tightening cycle, which was a string of quarter-percentage-point increases, occurred at a time when there was much lower inflation.

You can read the full story, here.

 

Fortune/Shaen Tully
Is a recession coming? Yes, if the Fed keeps ignoring the metric that matters most says a prominent Johns Hopkins economist

A prestigious chorus of experts now forecast that a U.S. recession is practically a sure thing. In an April 14 interview, former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers declared, “There has never been a moment when inflation was above 4% and unemployment below 5% when we didn’t have a recession within two years.” Summers chided the Fed for suggesting that a “soft landing” is likely, advising its leaders to level with the public by issuing a far more realistic, and rocky, view for the road ahead. Summers put the odds of a recession at “quite possibly at two-thirds or more.” A couple of weeks earlier, Bill Dudley, who headed the New York Fed from 2009 to 2018, gave an even gloomier assessment in a Bloomberg oped, warning that “the Fed has made a recession inevitable.” For Dudley, the central bank misfired by keeping monetary policy so loose, for so long, that “cooling things off” will require a tightening cycle so severe that it’s bound to send the economy from a boom to a tailspin.

Read the full story, here.

 

Kitco News
WW3 will not be a ground war, this is what it would look like instead – Brian Rose

“World War III is not going to be a ground war. It’s not going to be fought with tanks. It’s going to be a currency war between the dollar and the yuan,” emphasized Brian Rose, Founder and Host of the London Real podcast. “The U.S. has lost a lot of long-term credibility, especially with the Russia-Ukraine war. The dollar is retreating, but can the yuan replace it?”

Rose discussed the future of financial systems around the world with David Lin, Anchor at Kitco News, on the sidelines of the Paris Blockchain Week Summit. London Real is a podcast that has been on YouTube for the last 10 years with 2 million subscribers. Last year, Rose founded the Crypto and DeFi Academy, and ran for Mayor of London. A former Wall Street banker, he worked in fixed income and credit derivatives.

Continue reading, here.

 

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