Wall Street has lingering concerns about a contested election, even as Biden leads in the polls
Even as Joe Biden consistently leads in national and swing-state polls, bankers on Wall Street are still concerned about the possibility of a contested election.
The notion of a contested election was a focus at a private client meeting held by Goldman Sachs leaders a few weeks ago, according to a person familiar with the gathering.
Some of their clients, according to a person familiar with the meeting, were trying to reposition themselves for what could be an extended period of volatility after Election Day, Nov. 3.
Since then, as Biden opened up a bigger lead in the polls, a handful of Goldman executives have told allies on Wall Street that they are “cautiously optimistic” that there won’t be a post-election battle between the Democratic nominee and President Donald Trump, according to a person briefed on the matter.
Still, some of these banking leaders have privately expressed that concerns about a potential contested election could grow if the polls start to tighten again during the final three weeks of the campaign, this person added. That could potentially add to market volatility.
“Obviously that’s kind of the worst outcome people are worried about. After the last election, and there a lot of people in this camp on Wall Street, no one can trust the polls,” said a corporate restructuring attorney with banking clients. This person declined to be named. Many national polls had then-Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton ahead of Trump going into election night 2016.
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Invest in Gold and Silver Now and Beat the Rush!
Steven Roach is concerned with the US national savings rate. Very concerned. And he is convinced that the US is giving up the “exorbitant privilege” of being the world’s reserve currency.
The result will be a sharply lower standard of living for the American people. Not in some bye-and-bye far-off time, but next year.
Professor Roach is the former Chief Economist of investment banker Morgan Stanley. He has been an official of the Federal Reserve. He is now a lecturer and senior fellow at Yale.
IMF warns of ‘sharp adjustment’ in financial markets despite ‘remarkable’ recovery this year
Equity markets could tank in the coming months if the coronavirus crisis persists and the economic recovery takes longer than expected to materialize, the International Monetary Fund warned on Tuesday.
Stock markets have come off their September lows and are broadly higher year to date. The S&P 500 is up about 8% since the start of 2020 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq is more than 30% higher for the same period. This positive momentum in equities has contrasted with the severe economic shock caused by the coronavirus pandemic.
“A disconnect persists, for example, between financial markets — where there have been rising stock market valuations (despite the recent repricing) — and the weak economic activity and uncertain outlook,” Tobias Adrian, the IMF’s director of the monetary and capital markets department, wrote in a blog post Tuesday.
However, he warned that if the economic recovery was delayed, “investor optimism may wane.”
g as investors believe that markets will continue to benefit from policy support, asset valuations may stay elevated for some time. Nonetheless, and especially if the economic recovery is delayed, there is a risk of a sharp adjustment in asset prices or periodic bouts of volatility,” Adrian wrote.
Silver to Benefit from Global Solar Surge. It is Time to Buy Again, Goldman Sachs Says.
Silver is set to benefit from a global solar energy drive and it is once again time to buy the precious metal, Goldman Sachs analysts said.
Silver stands out as an “obvious beneficiary” with global infrastructure stimulus tilting toward renewable energy, and solar in particular, Goldman analyst Mikhail Sprogis said in a note.
Solar investment accounts for 18% or silver industrial demand or 10% or silver total demand, he added.
The investment bank initiated a long silver trade earlier this year before closing it out after silver prices surged 50%, briefly reaching its $30/toz target. “Now, with silver at $24/toz and a few potential upward solar surprises in the coming months, we reopen the trade,” Sprogis said.
Those upward solar surprises include both the U.S. and China stepping up plans for more solar installations.
The bank’s equity analysts said, in a base case scenario, global solar installations would increase by 50% between 2019 and 2023 as the trend toward green energy accelerates. But there are several upsides to what they described as an “ambitious target,” particularly if the U.S. and China pivot toward solar.