The OECD said coronavirus has triggered the worst global recession in almost 100 years – and laid out 2 scenarios for its impact on the world economy

“The COVID-19 pandemic has triggered the “most severe recession in nearly a century,” the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development warned on Wednesday as it released two scenarios for how the virus could develop and impact global markets.

The OECD said in Wednesday: “With little prospect of a vaccine becoming widely available this year, and faced with unprecedented uncertainty,  the OECD has taken the unusual step of presenting two equally likely scenarios – one in which the virus is brought under control, and one in which a second global outbreak hits before the end of 2020.”

A pair of very different scenarios

The OECD sees world economic output collapsing by 7.6% in the event of a second wave of coronavirus before the end of this year.”

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Gold gains as equity rally pauses ahead of Fed verdict

gold gains“Gold extended gains on Wednesday as global equity markets eased after a recent rally, while U.S. Treasury yields dropped ahead of the outcome of the Federal  Reserve’s meeting that is expected to shed light on the state of  the economy and further stimulus.

Spot gold was up 0.1% at $1,715.43 per ounce, as of  0248 GMT, after posting its best day in a month on Tuesday. U.S. gold futures also edged up 0.1% to $1,723.60.

“We are seeing a fairly clear risk-off sort of dynamic in the markets and I think that’s been supportive for gold as yields have fallen against that narrative over the past 24 hours,” said DailyFx currency strategist Ilya Spivak.”

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MONEY & MARKETS/Michael Carr

Warning: Why This Greed-Driven Rally Looks Like the Great Depression

rally looks like Great Depression“Right now, the S&P 500 is in the midst of its biggest three-month gain since 1957. Many analysts use the S&P 500 as a benchmark to describe the stock market. Their data often goes back to 1957 because that’s when Standard & Poor’s expanded the index to 500 companies and their stocks.

This ignores the fact that there was a stock market before 1957. Analysts using 1957 as their starting point argue markets before then were different than modern markets. These earlier markets, including the market crash leading into the Great Depression, were so different they can be ignored.

At times like this, that argument seems ridiculous. Human nature has been the same for thousands of years. Greed and fear have always been important motivations. After all, ancient civilizations went to war because of greed and fear.”

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Ron Paul in front of a bunch of gold“Ron Paul is not in the habit of making market predictions.  But when he does, we have learned to pay close attention.

This time last year Dr. Paul announced that we were in a new gold bull market.  He was certainly right about that.

Now the long-time congressman and former presidential candidate says he expects gold to hit $3,000 an ounce this year.  That is certainly possible.

Ron Paul is one of the nation’s foremost gold authorities.  He was a member of President Ronald Reagan’s Gold Commission in the 1980s, and is the co-author of The Case for Gold about the commission’s findings, as well as the author of Gold, Peace, and Prosperity, and the New York Times bestseller End the Fed.

In House Financial Services Committee hearings, Congressman Paul made more than one Federal Reserve chairman squirm.  When Ben Bernanke testified before the committee, Dr. Paul asked him if gold is money.”

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60 Years Experience