According to a recent Bloomberg survey, more economists see U.S. inflation running hotter through 2023 as recession odds grow. The looming recession has Amazon founder Jeff Bezos telling investors to take some risks off the table. “What I can tell you is the economy does not look great right now,” he said. “Things are slowing down. You’re seeing layoffs in many, many sectors of the economy. People are slowing down. The probabilities say if we’re not in a recession right now, we’re likely to be in one very soon.”

Bloomberg via Yahoo Finance/Reade Pickert and Sarina Yoo
Economists See US Inflation Running Even Hotter Through Next Year

Economists see US inflation running hotter through next year than they did a month ago and recession odds continue to mount against a backdrop of rising borrowing costs.

Projections for the personal consumption expenditures price index — the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation metric — were raised for each quarter of 2023. Still, price pressures are seen cooling sharply over the course of the year. By the final three months, the PCE price index will average 2.8% in the wake of sluggish economic activity and higher interest rates.

The figures are based on the median forecast of 65 economists in a Bloomberg survey conducted Nov. 4-11. Roughly half of the responses were collected prior to the Nov. 10 release of the consumer price index, which showed inflation rose at a slower-than-expected pace in October.

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Fox Business/Aislinn Murphy
Jeff Bezos advises to ‘take some risk off the table,’ says economy currently ‘does not look great’

Amazon founder Jeff Bezos on Saturday offered some advice to individuals and small business owners as he noted the economy “does not look great right now.”

Bezos told CNN he “didn’t know” whether the U.S. is “technically in a recession,” noting some economists “argue over that” and “have certain technical definitions.”

“What I can tell you is the economy does not look great right now,” the Amazon founder said. “Things are slowing down. You’re seeing layoffs in many, many sectors of the economy. People are slowing down. The probabilities say if we’re not in a recession right now, we’re likely to be in one very soon.”

You can keep reading, here.

Kitco News/Neils Christensen
A fundamental shift is driving gold prices closer to $1,800 – MKS’ Shiels

Gold’s new bullish momentum is more than just technical market repricing; the precious metal’s ability to hold new critical support levels could indicate a longer-term fundamental shift, according to one market analyst.

In a recent note to clients, Nicky Shiels, head of metals strategy at MKS PAMP, said that the biggest factor supporting gold’s new uptrend is shifting investor expectations regarding the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. Although the Federal Reserve will continue to raise interest rates through the early part of 2023, the pace is expected to slow down. At the same time, inflation pressures will remain elevated.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets firmly expect the U.S. central bank to raise the Fed Fund’s rate by 50 basis points next month.

Continue reading, here.

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